Is the market overbought right now?
Market Heat reads how stretched or washed-out the US market is over the next few weeks to months— from volatility, price-stretch, and credit. It's the fast, tactical counterpart to the structural Exuberance Index.
Hot at the tops, cold at the bottoms.
When it runs cold, the next quarter has paid. When it runs hot, it hasn't.
Average next-3-month S&P return when the market is washed out. Fear snaps back.
When it runs hot, the near-term edge fades — well below the usual quarter.
| Quarter | Heat | Band | Next 3-mo | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 63 | Hot | — | — |
| 2026Q2 | 67 | Hot | — | — |
| 2026Q1 | 14 | Cold | +14.6% | ✓ true |
| 2025Q4 | 45 | Neutral | -3.8% | — |
| 2025Q3 | 58 | Neutral | +3.1% | — |
| 2025Q2 | 51 | Neutral | +7.4% | — |
| 2025Q1 | 14 | Cold | +10.4% | ✓ true |
| 2024Q4 | 47 | Neutral | -8.2% | — |
| 2024Q3 | 68 | Hot | +2.5% | missed |
| 2024Q2 | 78 | Hot | +5.1% | missed |
| 2024Q1 | 86 | Overheated | +3.9% | missed |
| 2023Q4 | 88 | Overheated | +9.1% | missed |
| 2023Q3 | 54 | Neutral | +11.2% | — |
| 2023Q2 | 84 | Overheated | -3.6% | ✓ true |
| 2023Q1 | 59 | Neutral | +8.4% | — |
| 2022Q4 | 47 | Neutral | +7.4% | — |
| 2022Q3 | 12 | Cold | +7.1% | ✓ true |
| 2022Q2 | 20 | Cold | -3.8% | missed |
| 2022Q1 | 64 | Hot | -15.6% | ✓ true |
| 2021Q4 | 72 | Hot | -4.6% | ✓ true |
| 2021Q3 | 30 | Cool | +10.9% | ✓ true |
Oversold reversals are sharp; overbought can persist in a strong bull. So Hot means “worse near-term odds,” not “sell now.” Validated horizon ≈ 3 months. Built from FRED SP500, VIXCLS, BAA10Y — deterministic and repeatable.
The structural lens — how expensive the market is versus a century of its own history, and what that's meant for the next decade.
Both gauges are free. The reports — the few companies becoming foundational, priced across a million simulations — are the product.